Sirotin Intelligence Briefing: Feb 17 - Feb 21, 2025: Space Force Culture Questioned, ABL Rebrands For Defense, And NASA Faces Workforce Changes

The Space Force faces mounting scrutiny this week as a Mitchell Institute study reveals critical gaps in its warfighting culture, while President Trump orders a $50 billion defense budget cut for 2026. Meanwhile, the commercial sector continues its strategic pivot toward defense applications, with ABL Space rebranding to Long Wall and NASA implementing workforce changes under new efficiency directives. From major contract awards to technological breakthroughs, this week's briefing examines the developments reshaping the space industry landscape.

🛡️ Defense Highlights

• Space Force Lacks Warfighting Culture: Mitchell Institute study from 55 experts highlights critical gaps in Space Force's operational approach. Study tested concepts against future scenarios including Russian nuclear antisatellite weapons and Chinese attempts to hijack space assets, finding disconnect between "warfighting domain" rhetoric and actual policies.
• R-GPS Program Advances: After removing Astrion for maturity issues, Space Force redistributes funding among L3Harris, Sierra Space, and Astranis. The $1 billion program received $40M through "quick start" authority and seeks $77M more in FY2025, despite Congressional concerns about ground terminals.
• Report Criticizes Space Force's Strategy Against China: A recent report indicates that the Space Force's current strategy and nearly $30 billion budget are inadequate to effectively counter China's advancements in space capabilities. The report suggests reallocating funds from other military branches to bolster the Space Force.
• Defense Executives Seek Clarity on Space Agencies' Missions: Industry leaders are urging the Pentagon and Congress to provide clear directives regarding the roles and responsibilities of various space agencies to ensure cohesive support for the Space Force. spacenews.com
• Trump Orders $50 Billion Defense Budget Cut, Shields 'Iron Dome' Initiative: President Trump has mandated a $50 billion reduction in the 2026 defense budget. Despite the cuts, the 'Iron Dome for America' initiative, aimed at establishing a comprehensive missile defense system, remains protected.

💼 Major Space Contracts

• KBR Wins AMOS Contract: $176M contract covers maintenance through 2032 for AFRL's Advanced Space Technology Research and Optimization (ASTRO) program, including Advanced Electro Optical System and Raven telescopes maintenance at the critical space domain awareness facility.
• Firefly Secures TacRS Mission: Awarded $21.8M Victus Sol contract follows September 2023 demonstration where company achieved 27-hour launch readiness. Program transitions from testing phase to operational capability, with launch planned for late 2025/2026.
• Major SDA Contract Overhaul: Space Development Agency forced to recompete $254M Tyvak satellite contract after procurement integrity violation, while maintaining York Space Systems' separate $170M award. Tyvak has been under stop-work order since December 2024.
• NASA Awards Planetary Defense Telescope Launch Services Contract: NASA has selected SpaceX to provide launch services for the Near-Earth Object (NEO) Surveyor mission, an advanced space telescope designed to detect and monitor asteroids and comets that could pose an impact threat to Earth. The launch is targeted for September 2027 on a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket from Florida. 
• BAE Systems Wins $230.6M Space Weather Program Contract: BAE Systems has secured a $230.6 million contract to develop spacecraft for NOAA's Lagrange 1 Series project, a component of the Space Weather Next program. The contract includes spacecraft development, instrument integration, and mission operations support, with work to be performed at BAE's Boulder facility through January 2034. 
• PLD Space Signs Agreement to Launch from Oman's Etlaq Spaceport: Spanish launch provider PLD Space has signed an agreement with Oman's Etlaq Spaceport to use it as a launch site for its Miura 5 rocket. This agreement adds to PLD's existing launch complex at the Guiana Space Center in French Guiana, expanding its global launch network. 

🌐 Policy, Geopolitical & Legal Developments

• DOGE Reviews NASA: Under the Trump administration's efficiency push, NASA now evaluates contracts while implementing workforce optimization programs. Acting Administrator Janet Petro confirms review but scope remains unclear. Hundreds accepted deferred resignation with benefits through September 2025.
• Elon Musk Advocates for Early Termination of ISS Program: SpaceX CEO Elon Musk suggests accelerating the decommissioning of the International Space Station, proposing that resources be redirected toward more ambitious space exploration initiatives. english.alarabiya.net
• House Committee Schedules Artemis Program Hearing: The House Science, Space, and Technology Committee plans to hold a hearing on NASA's Artemis program next week. The discussion will address the program's delays and budget overruns, as well as its future under the current administration. spacepolicyonline.com
• NASA's Jim Free Announces Retirement Amid Workforce Changes: NASA Associate Administrator Jim Free has announced his retirement, coinciding with the agency's efforts to comply with workforce reduction directives. While some employees have accepted deferred resignation offers, broader layoffs have been temporarily halted. spacepolicyonline.com
• Elon Musk Advocates for Early Decommissioning of the ISS: Elon Musk has called for the International Space Station to be deorbited "as soon as possible," suggesting a timeline of two years. He argues that the ISS has served its purpose and recommends focusing resources on Mars exploration. 
• U.S. Space Force Releases First On-Orbit Image from X-37B Space Plane: The U.S. Space Force has released the first public image taken by the X-37B space plane during its seventh mission, which began on December 28, 2023. The photo, captured while orbiting above Africa, offers a rare glimpse into the typically classified operations of the X-37B. 

🛰️ Technology & Commercial Developments

• Kapta Space Unveils Advanced Spaceborne Radar Technology: Emerging from stealth mode, Seattle-based startup Kapta Space has secured $5 million in seed funding to develop electronically steerable, radar-based imaging technology for space applications. The company plans to deploy a constellation of low-cost satellites to deliver near real-time imagery and analytics for mining and defense sectors.
• Ursa Major's Draper Engine Targets Hypersonic Defense: Ursa Major has successfully hot-fired its Draper engine, a 4,000-pound-thrust liquid rocket engine utilizing a hydrogen peroxide and kerosene propellant mix. Development and testing have been supported by the Air Force Research Laboratory, focusing on enhancing missile defense capabilities.
• ABL Space Rebrands as Long Wall, Shifts to Defense Sector: Formerly known as ABL Space, the company has rebranded to Long Wall and pivoted its focus toward developing containerized missile defense systems. The strategic shift aims to leverage the company's expertise in rapid launch capabilities for U.S. military applications.
• True Anomaly Opens Long Beach Facility Near Space Force Clients: True Anomaly has inaugurated a new manufacturing plant in Long Beach, California, strategically positioned to serve Space Force customers. The facility will focus on developing military-focused space technologies for satellite protection.
• Chang'e 7 Mission Marks New Phase in China's Lunar Exploration: Following the success of Chang'e 6, China has scheduled the Chang'e 7 mission for 2026 to deploy a robotic explorer to the moon's south pole. The mission represents a significant step in China's lunar exploration program, focusing on resource investigation.
• SpaceX Launches 22 Starlink Satellites, Surpasses 8,000 Total Deployments: On February 22, 2025, SpaceX launched 22 Starlink satellites from Vandenberg Space Force Base, bringing the total number of Starlink satellites launched to over 8,000. The Falcon 9 rocket lifted off at 5:38 p.m. PST, and the first-stage booster successfully landed on the droneship "Of Course I Still Love You."

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💭 A Word From Christophe Bosquillon

Intelligence Contributor, Senior Editor at Sirotin Intelligence

This past week, Moody's negative ratings put SES Satellites on the defensive. A disruption that affects Intelsat & Eutelsat OneWeb too. Moody, Standard, and Poor isn't merely a description of the satellite industry's life as SpaceX STARLINK competitors. 

These are notorious rating agencies who regularly lead reputation onslaughts by embarrassing entire countries and putting corporations on the defensive.

While coping with confident reassurances vis-à-vis investors and the markets, it might be worth heeding the call in this case- because there is a fundamental transformation at work, a disruption that is getting nastier by the year.

Moody’s downgraded the Luxembourg-based satellite operator SES Satellites outlook from stable to negative: the Baa3 long-term issuer rating is only one notch above non-investment grade. SES' reaction has been to reassure investors on their revenues expectations, while declaring confidence.

Let's recall that SES Satellites remains on track to acquire Intelsat for $3.1Bn in mid-2025, with the consolidation expected to impact the market due to SES and Intelsat being the two largest geostationary (GEO) satellite operators in the world.

Soon-to-be part of SES Satellites, Intelsat has a close partnership with French operator Eutelsat Group’s Low Earth Orbit (LEO) network Eutelsat OneWeb, the only meaningful competitor today to SpaceX STARLINK in LEO.

However Eutelsat Group's market capitalization has recently fallen to ultra low levels.

So a question is: does being saddled with GEO assets drags you down, when all the rage is about massive LEO expansion by the likes of SpaceX Starlink, Amazon Project Kuiper, and massive deployment by China too? 

Eutelsat Group is already on its way to expand beyond GEO: besides the Airbus Defence and Space contract for 100 Eutelsat OneWeb satellites, Eutelsat has committed €2Bn to the European IRIS2 security satellites consortium.

In terms of marketing and branding, maybe it is time for these companies to mention "Multi-Orbit" not to appear stuck in GEO when pitted against the LEO giants. 

Nonetheless, the overall competitive landscape will only toughen up in years to come, but that is also an opportunity to expand and compete.Read this excellent analysis by Christopher Baugh, Partner Analysys Mason.

The Game Of Orbital Thrones is on... stay tuned and watch this space.

Have a great space week ahead!

🎤 Our Next Guest

Our Next Guest Tomorrow, we feature an exclusive interview with Eleftherios Plafountzis, Founder & CEO of Prometheus Space Technologies and expert in aerospace engineering and environmental protection. 

🔍 Topics Covered:

• His journey from F-16 aerospace engineer to space technology innovation
• Pioneering satellite-based wildfire prediction systems with 10-day forecasting
• Revolutionary approaches to space debris management through CADRESS 

Don't miss this deep dive into how space technology is being reimagined for Earth's protection from a visionary who's combining aerospace expertise with environmental preservation, having demonstrated successful implementations across Greece and Australia.

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"First Day on the Job, Hubble Was Broken" 

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The Future of Human Space Habitation 

Jules Ross reveals how her journey from artist to space visionary is reshaping human adaptation to space through Earth's first artificial gravity station.

Space Law's New Frontier 

Attorney Michael J. Listner unpacks the complex legal challenges facing modern space activities. From resource rights to orbital debris management

Making Oceans Transparent From Space

Navy Legend Guy Thomas, inventor of S-AIS, shares how his invention transformed global maritime surveillance and security.

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