Sirotin Intelligence Briefing: Mar 3 - Mar 6, 2025: X-37b Completes 434-day Secret Mission, China Incorporates Counter-space Weapons In Military Drills & Pentagon Launches "thunderforge" AI System

The X-37B returns after a groundbreaking 434-day mission while Space Force warns of daily low-threshold attacks from adversaries. Commercial firms demonstrate improved satellite tracking as major defense contracts reshape space capabilities. China integrates space operations into military exercises as France launches its final CSO-3 military observation satellite. This week's briefing examines how emerging technologies and strategic initiatives are transforming the orbital battlefield amid growing global competition.

🛡️ Defense Highlights

• ✈️ US Military's X-37B Returns After Secret Mission: The U.S. military's classified mini space shuttle, the X-37B, returned to Earth on Friday after spending 434 days in orbit. The Boeing-made reusable space plane touched down at Vandenberg Space Force Base in California following its seventh mission, which launched from Kennedy Space Center in December 2023. Space Force officials highlighted the mission's successful demonstration of using atmospheric drag to change orbits and save fuel, marking "an exciting new chapter in the X-37B program."
• ⏱️ SDA Delays Satellite Launch Due to Supply Chain Issues: The Space Development Agency has pushed back the launch of its next batch of satellites until late summer 2025, citing vendor delivery delays. This represents another setback for the Tranche 1 satellites that are part of the Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture. Despite the delay, SDA still expects to meet its requirement to provide "initial warfighting capability" by early 2027. The agency has faced persistent supply chain challenges, including issues with components like encryption devices and optical communications terminals.
• 🔍 Commercial Firms Demonstrate Improved Satellite Tracking: Three commercial companies—AST SpaceMobile, Kayhan Space, and LeoLabs—have successfully demonstrated a capability to help the Space Force more quickly detect and track satellites launched simultaneously into low Earth orbit. The collaborative effort, which used data from the September 2024 Bluebird Block 1 mission, reduced the "collision avoidance gap" from about two months to just one week. This capability addresses a growing challenge for Space Force as more satellite operators utilize ride-share launches where multiple spacecraft are released simultaneously.
• 🛰️ Space Systems Command Braces for Workforce Cuts: The Space Force's primary acquisition organization, Space Systems Command, is preparing for significant impacts from the Trump administration's federal workforce reduction orders. SSC Commander Lt. Gen. Philip Garrant described the situation as "incredibly challenging," especially when combined with the prospect of a yearlong continuing resolution. The command has had "a considerable number" of employees apply for voluntary resignation programs, while probationary employees face potential termination as part of the administration's efforts to decrease the size of the federal government.
• 🇨🇳 China's Military Exercises Increasingly Include Space Operations: Brig. Gen. Anthony J. Mastalir, commander of Space Forces Indo-Pacific, warned that China's expanding military exercises are increasingly incorporating space capabilities and blurring the line between drills and potential invasion preparations. China has been synchronizing the positioning of counter-space weapons, including anti-satellite systems, with its military exercises in the East China Sea. Beijing now operates more than 1,000 satellites—up from just two dozen a decade ago—with most "specifically designed to track U.S. forces."
• ⚠️ Air Force Warns Against Working for Chinese-Backed Aviation Companies: Gen. James B. Hecker, commander of NATO Allied Air Command and U.S. Air Forces in Europe and Air Forces Africa, has issued a stern warning to airmen about avoiding employment with companies affiliated with foreign adversaries, particularly China. The warning comes as China's People's Liberation Army actively recruits current and former NATO military personnel through private companies to train PLA Air Force and Navy aviators. Several companies involved in these recruitment efforts were specifically named, including Test Flying Academy of South Africa and Beijing China Aviation Technology Co.
• 🇫🇷 France Successfully Launches CSO-3 Military Observation Satellite: France has successfully launched its CSO-3 (Composante Spatiale Optique) military observation satellite using the Ariane 6 launcher from the Guiana Space Center. The March 6, 2025 launch completes France's MUSIS program, modernizing its military space-based system that began in 2018. CSO-3 strengthens France's surveillance and intelligence capabilities with unprecedented resolution in Europe, enabling continuous observation in both visible and infrared spectrums.
• 🤖 Pentagon Signs AI Deal for Military Planning: The Pentagon has partnered with Scale AI to develop "Thunderforge," an AI system designed to help military commanders plan and deploy naval vessels, aircraft, and other resources. The project will leverage AI solutions from Microsoft and Google, integrated with systems from weapons manufacturer Anduril. This initiative represents the growing collaboration between the Department of Defense and the technology sector.
• 💻 Space Force Modernizes Ground Control Approach: The Space Force is taking a new approach to ground control software development, adopting a more modular, agile, and iterative methodology to overcome bugs and delays that have plagued complex ground control systems in the past. Col. Robert Davis, program executive officer of SSC's space sensing directorate, emphasized that ground systems are even more important than space components and have often been an afterthought. The FORGE program has been divided into four separate components—framework, Mission Data Processing Application Framework, Command and Control, and Relay Ground Stations—with the framework already fielded at Buckley Space Force Base. The service plans to deliver the data processing framework this summer, followed by the BAE Systems-developed FORGE C2 component.

💼 Major Space Contracts

• 💰 BAE Systems Lands $151M FORGE Contract: BAE Systems has been awarded a $151 million contract from Space Systems Command to develop the Future Operationally Resilient Ground Evolution (FORGE) Command and Control ground system. This Phase II contract will support the Next-Generation Overhead Persistent Infrared (Next-Gen OPIR) program while continuing to support legacy systems like the Space-Based Infrared System. The FORGE program is taking a modular approach, with SSC already having fielded the FORGE framework component to operators and planning to deliver additional upgrades at least once a year.
• 🇬🇧 UK Invests £65M in New Satellite Protection System: The UK Ministry of Defence has awarded a £65 million contract to CGI UK to develop "Borealis," a space monitoring system designed to protect military satellites. The five-year project will support around 100 skilled jobs across Leatherhead, Reading, and Bristol. Borealis will provide enhanced command, control, and data processing capabilities for the National Space Operations Centre, improving the UK's ability to monitor space weather, track objects in orbit, and better protect critical national space assets.
• 📍 Astranis Demonstrates GPS Capability for Space Force: Astranis has successfully completed a key demonstration for the U.S. Space Force's Resilient GPS (R-GPS) program, transmitting core GPS waveforms using its software-defined radio hardware. The demonstration was delivered on budget and ahead of schedule—just four months into the program. The test validated that Astranis' Resilient GPS design is compliant with GPS specifications "out of the box," proving compatibility with existing GPS user equipment without requiring costly upgrades. Astranis is one of four bidders selected to design next-generation Resilient GPS satellites and aims to support USSF's schedule of launching the first eight satellites by 2028.
• 🔭 Albedo Secures $12M AFRL Contract for VLEO Operations: Albedo has been selected for a Strategic Funding Increase (STRATFI) opportunity by the Air Force Research Laboratory, with potential funding of up to $12 million. Following the successful launch of its first satellite, Clarity-1, in March 2025, Albedo will share Very Low Earth Orbit (VLEO) specific on-orbit data and provide analysis to support the development of new missions and payloads. The company will collect 10 cm resolution visible imagery and 2-meter thermal infrared imagery, while sharing operational data including GNSS telemetry, orbit maintenance performance, and satellite drag information. This partnership aims to advance the national space architecture by leveraging VLEO's advantages including superior image resolution, reduced power requirements, and natural debris removal.
• 📡 Maxar Wins Commercial GEO Satellite Order: Maxar Space Systems has secured a contract for a geostationary (GEO) high-power communications satellite from an unnamed private commercial customer. The satellite will be built on the Maxar 1300 series platform at the company's manufacturing facilities in Palo Alto and San Jose, California, and will feature a high-power, multi-spot beam payload. This order demonstrates Maxar's continued focus on the commercial GEO communication market and follows the company's recent delivery of the first of 16 spacecraft buses to L3Harris Technologies for the Space Development Agency's Tranche 1 Tracking Layer program.

🌐 Policy, Geopolitical & Legal Developments

• 🌕 Intuitive Machines' IM-2 Mission Ends Prematurely: Intuitive Machines' Athena lander mission ended less than a day after touching down on the Moon when it landed in a crater just 250 meters from its intended site. The off-nominal landing left the spacecraft on its side with solar panels unable to receive sunlight to recharge batteries. Despite the shortened mission, NASA and Intuitive Machines consider it a success, highlighting the achievement of "the southernmost lunar landing" and operation of some payloads before power depletion. This marks NASA's fourth Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) mission, with only Firefly's Blue Ghost Mission-1 achieving a fully successful landing.
• 🇪🇺 France Champions European Space Launch Autonomy: French Minister for Higher Education and Research Philippe Baptiste emphasized the importance of European space launch autonomy following Ariane 6's first commercial launch, which successfully placed France's CSO-3 military reconnaissance satellite into orbit. Baptiste directly referenced changing geopolitical dynamics, particularly mentioning "the return of Donald Trump to the White House with Elon Musk at his side" as having "significant consequences" on research and commercial partnerships. He urged Europe not to "yield to the temptation of preferring SpaceX" and called for the European Union to "fully assume its role as the political leader" in space matters.
• 🚀 SpaceX Achieves Booster Catch but Loses Starship: SpaceX's eighth Starship Integrated Flight Test (IFT-8) on March 6 successfully caught the Super Heavy booster with the launch tower's mechanical arms ("Mechazilla"), but the Starship second stage experienced a "rapid unscheduled disassembly" (RUD) minutes later over the Caribbean. This marked the second consecutive Starship explosion, despite modifications made after January's IFT-7 failure. The Starship system remains critical to SpaceX's future plans, including NASA's Artemis lunar landing missions and Elon Musk's ambitions for Mars colonization.
• 🏛️ Trump Reaffirms Mars Ambitions and Missile Defense Shield: In his first address to a joint session of Congress during his second term, President Trump reiterated his support for sending humans to Mars, stating America will "plant the American flag on the planet Mars and even far beyond." He also called for funding a "Golden Dome shield" missile defense system, the renamed version of what he previously called "Iron Dome for America." Trump noted that while Ronald Reagan had envisioned similar technology, "now we have the technology. It's incredible, actually," adding that "Israel has it, other places have it, and the United States should have it too".
• 👨‍🚀 NASA Astronauts Focus on Mission Amid Political Controversy: NASA astronauts Butch Wilmore, Suni Williams, and Nick Hague emphasized their focus on their ISS mission rather than the political controversy surrounding their extended stay. Wilmore stated that "politics is not playing into this at all," explaining they were "prepared to stay long, even though we planned to stay short" as part of contingency planning. Williams defended the ISS's continued operation, saying "we're in our prime right now" with "all the power, all the facilities up and operating," and supporting the planned 2030 decommissioning timeline rather than Elon Musk's suggestion to terminate it in two years.
• 🏗️ SpaceX Expands Starship Operations to Florida: SpaceX is preparing to expand Starship operations to Florida, with plans to begin launches from Kennedy Space Center later this year. The company is building a Starship launch pad next to its existing Falcon launch pad at Launch Complex-39A and completing environmental reviews for another pad at Space Launch Complex-37. Additionally, SpaceX has started site preparations for a 380-foot tall "Gigabay" to support Super Heavy/Starship operations, providing 46.5 million cubic feet of processing space. A manufacturing facility similar to the one at Boca Chica is also planned for KSC.
• 🇯🇵 Japan's ispace Sets June Landing Date for Second Moon Mission: Japanese commercial lunar company ispace announced its SMBC x HAKUTO-R Venture Moon mission will reach lunar orbit on May 6 and attempt landing on June 6, 2025 (JST). The mission, which launched January 15 on the same Falcon 9 rocket as Firefly's Blue Ghost Mission-1, is taking a longer, low-energy trajectory to maximize payload capacity. This represents ispace's second landing attempt after their first mission failed in April 2023 when a software error caused the spacecraft to crash from 5 kilometers altitude. The RESILIENCE lander carries the small TENACIOUS rover and five customer payloads.

🛰️ Technology & Commercial Developments

• ☁️ Space Force Scaling Cloud-Based Satellite Control System: The Space Force's Rapid Capabilities Office is working to expand its Rapid Resilient Command and Control (R2C2) program, a cloud-based ground control system for dynamic satellites. With military satellites expected to increase dramatically, the office has 18 months to develop a scalability plan before 2026, when all new satellites must use R2C2. The program represents a shift toward using non-traditional, small business software developers instead of traditional defense contractors, with plans to field an operational R2C2 1.0 capability in April 2025.
• 🏢 GSA Launches Space Match to Optimize Federal Office Space: The General Services Administration has introduced "Space Match," a new program connecting federal agencies that need workspace with those that have extra capacity. Launched on March 3, 2025, the initiative aims to improve efficiency, reduce costs, and support the Office of Management and Budget's goal of 60% office utilization. The program comes amid the Trump administration's efforts to drastically reduce the federal government's real estate footprint, with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) claiming to have terminated nearly 750 leases totaling 9.6 million square feet, saving $660 million in annual rent costs.
• 💧 Lunar Water Mining May Be Easier Than Expected: Recent research from India's Chandrayaan-3 mission suggests that water ice beneath the Moon's surface may be more accessible than previously thought. Scientists analyzing temperature data from the landing site found that higher latitudes on the moon with slopes facing the poles exhibit conditions conducive to ice formation at relatively shallow depths. These areas receive less intense solar radiation, resulting in cooler surface temperatures that could facilitate water ice extraction with fewer technical challenges compared to the crater-filled poles. This discovery is vital for NASA's Artemis program and future lunar missions, as water could provide drinking supplies, cooling for equipment, oxygen production, and even rocket fuel.
• 🏭 Fleet Space Unveils New Global Headquarters: Australian space company Fleet Space Technologies has announced the construction of a new global headquarters and "hyper factory" at Adelaide Airport. The 5,300-square-meter facility will enable production of thousands of smart sensors and hundreds of satellites annually while creating hundreds of new jobs in South Australia. The facility will also house the company's exploration-focused AI supercomputer, ExoCore, establishing South Australia as a center for global AI innovation. This development follows Fleet Space's recent AUD$150 million Series D funding round, which more than doubled the company's valuation to AUD$800 million.
• 🔧 SKYNET 6A Satellite Completes Initial Testing: The UK Ministry of Defence's SKYNET 6A military communications satellite has successfully completed its initial phase of testing at the National Satellite Test Facility in Harwell, Oxfordshire. The satellite, which represents the single largest government investment in the UK space industry, was tested for electromagnetic compatibility, extreme temperatures, and vibrations to ensure it can withstand the harsh conditions of launch and space. Built by Airbus Defence and Space UK, SKYNET 6A will leverage the latest developments in digital processing and radio frequency spectrum utilization to offer greater capacity and versatility than previous generations of SKYNET satellites.
• 🤖 SALUTS Develops Robot-on-Chip for Space Applications: SALUTS has won the "Economics of the Future" award at the Entrepreneurship World Cup for its Robot-on-Chip technology, which is transforming space technology through enhanced autonomous decision-making capabilities. The technology enables real-time, in-orbit data processing, reducing reliance on Earth-based processing, lowering costs, and increasing mission autonomy. SALUTS has also launched CHIRB (Computing on Hybrid Interplanetary Relay Basis), a breakthrough in AI-driven operations that fuses Web2.0 and Web3.0 into a next-generation control portal for space, defense, and industrial AI applications.
• 💥 First Light Fusion Pivots Strategy: UK-based First Light Fusion has announced a strategic shift, abandoning plans to develop its own fusion power plant to instead focus on commercial partnerships with other fusion companies. The company will leverage its amplifier technology, which recently set a new pressure record of 1.85 terapascals during testing on Sandia National Laboratories' Z Machine. First Light will now concentrate on designing and manufacturing consumable "targets" embedded with its proprietary amplifier technology for various inertial fusion schemes. The company is also exploring non-fusion applications, including partnerships with NASA to test materials under extreme pressures that simulate high-velocity impacts in space.
• 🔎 Danti Expands AI-Powered Earth Data Search Engine: Danti has launched its public sector offering after a year of working with the U.S. Space Force, National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, and other government agencies. The AI-powered knowledge engine allows users to ask questions using natural language and quickly receive data-driven responses synthesized from various sources including satellite imagery, computer vision analytics, reports, news, social media, and global events data. The technology has been supporting Space Systems Command's Tactical Surveillance, Reconnaissance, and Tracking efforts, enabling users to access and share a wide range of data regardless of expertise level.
• 🧬 DARPA Explores Growing Biological Structures in Space: The US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) is investigating ways to grow large-scale biological structures in space. The initiative aims to develop methods for creating massive objects like telescope antennas, space elevator tethers, or debris-catching nets using biological organisms in microgravity. This approach could significantly reduce the cost of launching components from Earth by leveraging biological growth mechanisms combined with mechanical and structural engineering.

💭 A Word From Christophe Bosquillon

Intelligence Contributor, Senior Editor at Sirotin Intelligence

London Calling: this week we took a brief detour via the “Space Security 2025” public conversation arranged by the esteemed Chatham House (create your account here to watch the replay).

In the wake of the UK PM announcement of the biggest increase in defense spending, the keynote enabled Paul Bate, Chief Executive of the UK Space Agency, to clarify key priorities for a stronger UK national security policy in, from, and to space, that shares multi-stakeholders responsibility.

Space, as a contested domain and an opportunity for innovation, underpins economic growth: while the special relationship with the US remains paramount, securing sovereign launch capabilities allows the UK to act as an invested-in partner, and an ally that brings something of value to that relationship.

A panel gathering the US Space Force, European space agencies, a defense & aerospace major, and a think-tank, tackled the renewed space race. Concerns over Chinese access and refuelling capabilities in GEO are aggravated by China’s opacity in acquiring commercial and governement competences. 

What assets will the UK build as offering for a sustained cooperation with the US? Can Europe ever fix a fragmented industrial base, scarce funding, slow decision-making – commercially unsustainable? Hasn’t Indo-Pacific, especially Japan, become an indispensable space partner from orbit to the Moon?
 
Finally, a panel including representatives from the UK and European space agency (ESA), the World Economic Forum, and United Nations, discussed space economy and sustainability. ESA is somewhat encouraged to play a stronger role in security and sustainability with its upcoming strategy 2040. 

This panel emphasized soft and smart space power, multi-lateral and UN-driven frameworks: the Outer Space Treaty and international cooperation making space as “inclusive” as possible. Launch capabilities remain insufficient, while export control and dual use issues stiffle their expansion.

 Keeping space sustainable in the future requires moving forward with pragmatic enough regulations. More launch capabilities will be needed among emerging countries, emphasizing the inspirational power of space for younger generations, while dealing with inherent risks for Earth such as debris. 

So many elephants in the room, with a NATO hard power posture way too squishy on space defense. 

Have a great space week ahead!

🎤 Our Next Guests

Tuesday, March 11th, we feature an exclusive interview with Chris Newlands, Space Aye CEO and the world's 4th most influential space entrepreneur, behind only Musk, Bezos, and Branson.

🔍 Topics Covered:

• His journey from Royal Navy trainee to financial expert to revolutionary space entrepreneur
• How a "space selfie" concept led to groundbreaking satellite imagery technology
• Merging IoT data with real-time satellite imagery for global impact
• Scotland's unique position in the growing commercial space sector
• His vision for an "always-on" view of Earth by 2030

Don't miss this deep dive with a visionary entrepreneur whose patents are transforming how we observe our world, from wildfire management to missing persons searches, while pioneering new standards in the global space industry.

This Thursday, March 13th, we feature an exclusive interview with Patrick McClure, Chief Operations Officer of SpaceNukes and pioneering nuclear engineer with over 35 years of experience.

🔍 Topics Covered:

• His journey from petroleum engineering to leading space nuclear power innovation
• The revolutionary Kilopower project that revitalized America's space nuclear program
• The future of nuclear reactors in space exploration and establishing human presence beyond Earth

Don't miss this deep dive into how nuclear technology is being reimagined for space applications from a visionary who helped break decades of stagnation in the field, bringing us closer to sustainable power solutions for lunar bases, Mars missions, and deep space exploration.

📚 Essential Intel from Our Archives

Missed a beat? These groundbreaking conversations are must-reads:

"We're Being Attacked Every Day" 

Christopher Stone, Former Pentagon Space Advisor, warns about America's vulnerabilities in orbit and explains why China's "attack to deter" doctrine makes space conflict more likely than many realize.

"I Helped SpaceX Secure Their First Commercial Contracts" 

Serial entrepreneur Robert Feierbach discusses building billion-dollar space ventures across four continents and developing North America's newest spaceport.

"We Can Fly 8,000 Miles In 2 Hours" 

Jess Sponable, Ex-DARPA PM & President of NFA, explains how rocket-powered aircraft will revolutionize global travel through simplified hypersonic technology.​​ 

"This Could Be Our Biggest Economy"

Kevin O'Connell, Former Space Commerce Director, reveals how space is transforming from a government domain to a $1.8 trillion market.

​​"How Do You Win a War in Space?" 

Ram Riojas, Ex-Nuclear Commander and Space Defense Expert, explains why the next war will start in space and how nations are preparing their defenses.

"First Day on the Job, Hubble Was Broken" 

Mike Kaplan, James Webb Space Telescope Pioneer, reveals how early setbacks with Hubble shaped NASA's approach to complex space missions. 

The Future of Human Space Habitation 

Jules Ross reveals how her journey from artist to space visionary is reshaping human adaptation to space through Earth's first artificial gravity station.

Space Law's New Frontier 

Attorney Michael J. Listner unpacks the complex legal challenges facing modern space activities. From resource rights to orbital debris management

Making Oceans Transparent From Space

Navy Legend Guy Thomas, inventor of S-AIS, shares how his invention transformed global maritime surveillance and security.

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