Sirotin Intelligence Briefing: Feb 3 - Feb 8, 2025: Pentagon Reviews SDA, Boeing's $2B Starliner Losses, and U.S.-Japan's Historic Space Mission.

In a week dominated by defense scrutiny and leadership changes, the Pentagon's review of the Space Development Agency signals growing concerns over satellite deployment capabilities, while China's DeepSeek AI advances raise new space security alarms. Commercial dynamics shifted as Boeing's Starliner losses topped $2 billion and Karman Space announced an ambitious $400M IPO. U.S.-Japan space cooperation reached new heights with their first joint security mission, while policy tensions emerged over NASA advisory groups and Port Canaveral's aerospace future. Here's your essential briefing on the developments reshaping space defense, technology, and policy.

🛡️ Defense & Policy Highlights

• 🔍🛰️ Pentagon Orders Review of Space Development Agency: The Pentagon has directed an independent review of SDA's progress in deploying missile tracking satellites, with acting acquisition executive Steven Morani requesting the Air Force assess SDA's performance and organizational structure. The review comes amid leadership changes, with William Blauser recently appointed as acting director following Derek Tournear's administrative leave. 
• 🤖🇨🇳 Concerns Over China's AI Capabilities in Space: Former Air Force Under Secretary Erin Conaton warns that China's DeepSeek AI advances highlight vulnerabilities in U.S. space security, calling for enhanced vetting of private space contractors and stricter safeguards against technology transfer to adversaries.
• 🇺🇸🇯🇵 U.S.-Japan Launch First Joint Space Mission: The U.S. Space Force and Japan launched their first joint national security space mission, with a U.S. space domain awareness payload aboard Japan's QZS-6 satellite. The mission marks a significant milestone in bilateral space cooperation, with a second payload launch planned for early 2026.
• ⚡🚢 U.S. Navy's Directed-Energy Weapon Test: The Navy has successfully tested its 60-kilowatt HELIOS laser weapon system against an unmanned drone target from the USS Preble. The system, developed by Lockheed Martin, demonstrates the viability of directed-energy weapons for defending against aerial threats. 
• 📝👥 "Fork in the Road" Buyout Concerns: Despite national security exemptions, Trump administration's deferred resignation program has extended to civilian employees in critical space agencies, raising concerns about potential impacts on space programs and capabilities. A federal judge has temporarily delayed the February 6 deadline. 
• 📡🌍 Viasat Wins Space Force Communication Contract:Viasat has secured a $3.5M task order under the PLEO SBS contract to provide Ku-band LEO services supporting U.S. government operations globally, marking the company's first award under the $13B IDIQ contract.
• 🇮🇷⚛️ Iran Masks Nuclear Work Under Space Program: Iran's Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research is reportedly developing nuclear warheads at the Shahroud and Semnan space facilities, with intelligence showing SPND personnel working on the Ghaem-100 rocket capable of carrying nuclear payloads. The NCRI warns about Iran using civilian space technology as cover.

🛰️  Technology & Commercial Developments

• 📊💫 Analysts Warn of Space Defense Bubble: Financial analysts are advising caution in the booming defense-focused space sector. While opportunities abound, concerns about market saturation and long-term sustainability of government contracts are tempering enthusiasm.
• ⚖️🛰️ Geost Sues Sierra Space: Optical sensor supplier Geost has filed a $17.1M lawsuit against Sierra Space, alleging the company included Geost in its successful $740M Space Force satellite bid, only to later switch to competitor Leidos. Sierra Space disputes the claims.
• 👨‍💼🚀 Space Development Agency Names Acting Chief: William Blauser, an Air Force acquisition veteran, has been appointed acting director of the Space Development Agency, replacing Derek Tournear who was placed on administrative leave amid an investigation of past contracting activities. Blauser joins the Air Force Rapid Capabilities Office and takes over following a brief interim period under Lt. Gen. Philip Garrant. 
• 🎯🌠 Frank Calvelli Joins True Anomaly: Former Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Space Acquisition Frank Calvelli has joined space technology startup True Anomaly's board of directors. The Colorado-based company, which develops military training and space domain awareness satellites, also recently hired former defense official Stephen Kitay as senior VP as it expands its defense sector presence. 
• 🤖🇰🇷 Korean AI Advances Electric Propulsion: KAIST researchers have developed an AI model that predicts Hall thruster performance with over 95% accuracy, with their AI-designed thruster set to launch on the Korean Nuri rocket in November 2025. The technology aims to streamline the development of these critical satellite propulsion systems.
• 🛰️🤝 ATLAS and HawkEye 360 Alliance: ATLAS Space Operations will provide HawkEye 360 access to its ground stations in Mingenew, Australia and Awarua, New Zealand, enhancing the RF intelligence company's satellite communications network and reducing data latency. The partnership includes access to ATLAS's high-speed X-band modems.
• 💡🔬 Mobix Labs Secures Defense Funding: Mobix Labs has won a Phase 1 STTR contract from the Defense Microelectronics Activity to develop a low-power satellite communications System-on-Chip, collaborating with the University of Massachusetts Lowell on the project.
• 📈🚀 Karman's Initial Public Offering: Karman Space and Defense is advancing with its initial public offering (IPO), planning to offer approximately 21 million shares priced between $18 and $20 each. This move aims to raise up to $421 million, potentially valuing the company at up to $2.6 billion.
• 🛰️🇯🇵 Rocket Lab and iQPS Partnership: Rocket Lab will launch four iQPS synthetic aperture radar satellites on Electron rockets from New Zealand, with three missions in 2025 and one in 2026. The agreement builds on their successful December 2023 launch and will help build out iQPS's planned 36-satellite constellation for sub-meter resolution Earth imaging.
• 💰📉 Boeing’s Starliner Losses Top $2 Billion: Boeing has disclosed a $523M loss on Starliner in 2024, pushing total program losses above $2B. With ongoing technical challenges, including a recent propulsion system issue that forced an empty return from the ISS, and CEO hints about refocusing on aviation, the program's future remains uncertain. Former program head John Mulholland has returned to lead the effort.

🌐 Policy & Legal Shifts

• 🏛️🚀 U.S. Chamber Launches Space Leadership Council: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has established a new Space Leadership Council (SLC) to maintain U.S. space sector leadership through private sector growth. Chaired by Amazon VP Brian Huseman and ICEYE U.S. CEO Eric Jensen as vice-chair, the council will focus on advancing space policy in areas like acquisition, licensing, and regulation. With the global space industry valued at $570B, the initiative aims to strengthen America's competitive position in the rapidly growing commercial space economy.ing, trade, spectrum allocation, safety, workforce development, and defense 
• 🚢 🛸 Space Industry vs. Cruise Ships at Port Canaveral: Florida's Department of Transportation and Commerce strongly opposed Port Canaveral's plans to convert a cargo berth into a cruise terminal, threatening to withdraw funding unless plans are rescinded. Officials argue the $13M state-funded cargo facility is crucial for aerospace operations and warn the conversion could drive space companies away.
• 🔬⏸️ NASA Advisory Groups Suspended Over DEI Review: NASA has suspended activities of its planetary science analysis groups and other community-based scientific advisory committees while reviewing compliance with new White House directives on diversity and inclusion programs. The pause affects multiple advisory groups across NASA's science divisions, including the upcoming MExAG and OPAG meetings.
• ⚖️🚀 Congress Questions Musk's Space Industry Conflicts: Key Democratic lawmakers have raised concerns about potential conflicts of interest regarding Elon Musk's involvement with NASA and DOT. Sen. Cantwell and Reps. Lofgren and Foushee questioned his role given SpaceX's $2B+ in NASA contracts and DOGE team's planned work with FAA, requesting responses by February 13.
• 🇷🇺👨‍💼 Russia's Space Leadership Change: Putin has replaced Yuri Borisov as head of Roscosmos with Dmitry Bakanov, former deputy transportation minister. The change comes amid challenges including delays in Russia's new space station plans, the Luna-25 crash, and ISS technical issues. The Kremlin cited need for "dynamic development" rather than complaints about Borisov.
• 🛡️💫 GOP Senators Back Trump's Space-Based 'Iron Dome' Plan: Senators Dan Sullivan (R-AK) and Kevin Cramer (R-ND) have introduced the "Iron Dome Act," proposing $19.5B in FY2026 funding to implement Trump's space-based missile defense initiative, including $960M for space technologies. The plan aims to integrate existing programs like HBTSS and PWSA while adding controversial space-based interceptors, though experts note significant technical and coordination challenges ahead.
• 📡📱FCC Sets Stage for C-Band Spectrum Battle: The FCC plans to vote February 27 on reviewing new uses for upper C-band satellite spectrum (3.98-4.2 GHz), potentially igniting competition between SpaceX and wireless carriers. While telecom companies seek to expand 5G services, SpaceX is advocating for shared access across multiple operators. This follows the earlier lower C-band auction that generated $80B and provided SES and Intelsat $9B in relocation payments.

💭 A Word From Christophe Bosquillon

A Special Space Zeitgeist Nugget (SZN)

In a dramatic week that saw the algorithmic-driven DOGE lead a totally ruthless shakedown of federal spending (USAID, etc.) the space domain wasn’t left unscathed by the Trump 2.0 administration’s Executive Orders.  

A NASA in transition has cancelled DEI, paused work on science groups, and started reassessing the Artemis program. 

Boeing prepares for the axe to fall on the SLS, albeit knowing that SpaceX Starship isn’t ready yet nor human-rated to take over crewed missions Artemis 2 and 3 (2027 landing). 

NASA Artemis foreign partners play it business as usual: the UAE just awarded a Gateway airlock contract to Thales Alenia. 

While some argue the US launcher market needs more competition, others object it would be futile to emulate the SpaceX vertical integration model.  

Competitive pressure forces Europe to consider merging its three legacy giants Airbus, Thales Alenia, and Leonardo in a plan subject to skepticism. 

 Such fury didn’t stop French satellite propulsion company ThrustMe from expanding in the US market. Founded in 2017, and focused on miniaturized, iodine fueled electric propulsion systems for small satellites, ThrustMe has secured deals with over 7 US firms plus some in Canada. Since defense agencies seek more agile and responsive mobility solutions for their spacecraft, this too bodes well for the company: friends and allies working well together.

Meanwhile, back at the UN, COPUOS2025 blasted off with the opening of the 62nd session of the Scientific and Technical Sub-Committee (STSC) of the Committee for the Peaceful Use of Outer Space (COPUOS). UNOOSA and FAO announced a new publication on "Leveraging Space Technology for Agricultural Development and Food Security" to explore how space-based solutions are transforming farming and food security.  

Finally, and for good measure, the discussion on Mars vs Moon keeps raging, since China maintains both its cislunar gameplan and its Mars direct goals for the 2030s.

 Have a great space week ahead!

🎤 Our Next Guest

Tomorrow, we feature an exclusive interview with Jules Ross, founder of Joules Space Technology and expert in artificial gravity systems.

🔍 Topics Covered:

• How artificial gravity enables long-term human space habitation
• Space Station EO's dual-gravity environment innovations
• The engineering challenges of radiation protection in space

Don't miss this deep dive into the technological breakthroughs shaping humanity's future in space.

Interested in being interviewed? Contact me at angelica@sirotinventures.com