Sirotin Intelligence Briefing: Feb 24 - Feb 28, 2025: Space Force Unveils "Golden Dome" Initiative, China Declassifies Tance 4-01 Satellite, and GAO Questions SDA Launch Plans

The Space Force leads the newly renamed "Golden Dome" initiative and major defense contracts reshape the commercial space sector. China's high-orbit radar satellite disclosure raises strategic concerns while emerging technologies in AI and materials science accelerate space capabilities. This week's briefing examines the critical developments transforming defense, policy, and commercial space ventures.

🛡️ Defense Highlights

• SDA Launch Plans Questioned: A Government Accountability Office report recommends that the Space Development Agency delay its next satellite launch until it demonstrates required laser communications capabilities with existing spacecraft. The GAO found that SDA's rapid development approach may hinder its ability to incorporate lessons learned and fully validate key technologies
• Space Force's Role in "Iron Dome for America": Chief of Space Operations Gen. Chance Saltzman announced that the Space Force will play a central role in developing a homeland missile defense shield, as ordered by President Trump. The service has established an integrated planning team to evaluate existing capabilities and explore new technologies needed for this advanced defense system
• "Golden Dome" Initiative Takes Shape: The Space Force has formed a team of experts to assess how its current programs can support the newly renamed "Golden Dome" initiative, formerly known as "Iron Dome for America." The team will identify gaps in capabilities and evaluate the feasibility of space-based interceptors, with funding expected to be a significant challenge in the current budget environment

💼 Major Space Contracts

• POLARIS Spaceplanes Secures Hypersonic Contract: German company POLARIS Spaceplanes has been awarded a contract by BAAINBw to design a fully reusable hypersonic research vehicle for defense-related applications and scientific research1.This contract is likely to kickstart the development of AURORA, a multipurpose spaceplane and hypersonic transport system, with provisions for future manufacturing and flight testing.
• Auburn University Lands $11.4M DOD Deal: Auburn University's Applied Research Institute has secured an $11.4 million contract from the Department of Defense to establish a cutting-edge radiation hardening facility, the only university-led facility of its kind in the nation. This facility will address the critical shortage of rad hardening infrastructure and help ensure the reliability of military technology in harsh space environments.
• AST SpaceMobile Wins $43M SDA Contract: AST SpaceMobile has been awarded a $43 million contract to support the U.S. Space Development Agency through a prime contractor. The company will utilize its next-generation Block 2 BlueBird satellites, featuring the largest commercial phased array antennas ever deployed in low Earth orbit, to provide advanced connectivity and performance for critical government missions.

🌐 Policy, Geopolitical & Legal Developments

• Philippines Urges Disarmament Action: At the 2025 Conference on Disarmament, the Philippines called for decisive steps in nuclear disarmament, space security, and arms control. Undersecretary Charles C. Jose emphasized the need for legally binding instruments to prevent outer space militarization and stressed the importance of safeguarding space for peaceful purposes12.
• NASA Workforce Concerns Amid US-China Space Race: Democratic lawmakers expressed alarm over NASA employees fearing job losses amid the US-China race to the Moon. The House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology hearing highlighted concerns about workforce intimidation and arbitrary firings, potentially impacting NASA's ability to compete with China's space advancements.
• House Committee Backs Moon-to-Mars: A key House committee reaffirmed support for NASA's Artemis program but emphasized the need for faster progress to ensure US astronauts reach the Moon before China's taikonauts. Experts suggested considering alternatives to the Space Launch System (SLS) for future missions beyond Artemis II and III.
• China Declassifies High-Orbit Radar Satellite: China revealed details of its Ludi Tance 4-01 satellite, the world's first geosynchronous orbit synthetic aperture radar satellite. Positioned at 36,000km altitude, it provides continuous monitoring of the Asia-Pacific region, raising concerns in the US about China's advancing satellite capabilities.
• NASA Leadership Changes: NASA announced significant leadership shifts, including Johnson Space Center Director Vanessa Wyche becoming Acting Associate Administrator and Lori Glaze taking over as Acting Associate Administrator for the Exploration Systems Development Mission Directorate.
• Asteroid 2024 YR4 Update: Further observations of asteroid 2024 YR4 have reduced its Earth impact probability to nearly zero for 2032. However, NASA reports a 1.7% chance it could strike the Moon, with ongoing observations to refine its trajectory.
• Airline Pilots Surprised by Chinese Live-Fire Warning: Airline pilots expressed surprise at receiving short-notice warnings from the Chinese navy about live-fire drills near Australia. The sudden alerts forced several commercial flights to divert, highlighting concerns over the adequacy of advance notice provided by China for such military exercises. This incident has raised questions about communication protocols and regional tensions.

🛰️ Technology & Commercial Developments

• Space Force Turns to AI: As space becomes more crowded, the U.S. Space Force is exploring AI applications for space domain awareness. The service is evaluating how many space objects a single guardian can monitor with automated tools, aiming to enhance efficiency in tracking and identifying potential threats.
• Metal Foam for Space Travel: Researchers have developed a super-strong "metal foam" that could revolutionize space travel and defense. This composite metal foam performs better than conventional metals used in shielding materials while weighing significantly less, offering potential applications in aerospace and defense industries.
• China's Space Advancements: China successfully launched new satellites for its Superview remote sensing constellation using a Long March 2C rocket. Additionally, China announced plans to welcome its first foreign astronaut to its space station in the next few years, demonstrating the country's growing influence in space exploration.
• ISRO's Next-Gen Launch Vehicle: The Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) has begun work on its next-generation launch vehicle, codenamed "Soorya." This new rocket is designed for future space missions, including completing the Bharatiya Antariksh Station and sending an Indian to the moon by 2040.
• Russia's ISS Cargo Mission: Russia launched its Progress MS-30 cargo spacecraft to the International Space Station, delivering 2,599 kilograms of supplies, including equipment, food, and fuel. This marks Russia's first spacecraft launch to the ISS in 2025.
• 5G Non-Terrestrial Networks: The Seamless Air Alliance and European Space Agency announced significant progress in developing 5G Non-Terrestrial Networks for aviation connectivity. Successful demonstrations of 5G NTN links over both LEO and GEO satellites have been conducted, paving the way for improved in-flight connectivity.
• ESA's Integral Mission Concludes: The European Space Agency's gamma-ray telescope, Integral, has completed its 22-year mission. The observatory played a crucial role in revealing the nature of gamma-ray bursts and uncovering the origin of gravitational wave events, leaving a lasting legacy in high-energy astrophysics.
• All-Female New Shepard Crew: Blue Origin announced its next New Shepard suborbital mission, NS-31, featuring an all-female crew including CBS journalist Gayle King, pop star Katy Perry, and Jeff Bezos's fiancée Lauren Sánchez. The mission, set for spring 2025, is touted as the first all-female flight crew since Valentina Tereshkova's 1963 solo flight.

💭 A Word From Christophe Bosquillon

Intelligence Contributor, Senior Editor at Sirotin Intelligence

The last week of February 2025 saw a culmination in lunar momentum with contrasting dynamics between the commercial and congressional fronts.

 Commercially, no less than 3 lunar landers are on their way to the Moon. Launched in mid-January, Firefly Aerospace's Blue Ghost (US) Mission 1 landed perfectly on the Moon this 02 March 2025. Its fellow traveller, ispace’s Resilience lander (Japan) takes a detour and will arrive later in spring.  

Next, the Intuitive Machines IM2 mission took off on 26 February 2025 with its Moon landing slated for 06 March. Its lander Athena carries NASA payloads, such as an IM-built and NASA-funded rocket-powered hopper called Micro Nova. In addition to IM-2, the Falcon 9 carried three secondary payloads deployed from the upper stage about four minutes after IM-2: Chimera (Epic Aerospace) is doing fine. Lunar Trailblazer (NASA) and Odin (AstroForge) both experienced communication problems. 

On the congressional front, the Moon vs Mars discussion culminated at a Feb. 26 hearing of the House Science Committee’s space subcommittee with clear statements by Scott Pace and Dan Dumbacher in favor of prioritizing the Moon. Days earlier in the media, Rep. Brian Babin, Chairman of the House Science, Space, and Technology committee, had previously said “If we skip the Moon, we’re making a very serious mistake."  

SpaceX Starship won’t just be ready on time. A Falcon rocket with a modified Crew Dragon is an option. But all it can do is to dock at the Gateway orbiting lunar station: a lunar lander would still be required, but SpaceX hasn't yet delivered on its NASA lander contract. If SLS is cancelled before Artemis 2 and 3, the US misses the late 2020's target for a crewed return to the Moon. China “wins.”

While China plans to do the Moon and Mars in parallel, it is clear the Moon is both an Astropolitik priority for lunar resources, and a place to test technologies and infrastructures for Mars. Who stays, invests, build, trade, and expand will set the rules of a robust ISRU-driven cis/lunar economy as an industrial and logistical hub: a strategic stepping stone toward expanding across the solar system. 

Have a great space week ahead!

🎤 Our Next Guest

On Tuesday, we feature an exclusive interview with Christopher Stone, Senior Fellow for Space Deterrence at the National Institute for Deterrence Studies and former Special Assistant to the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Space Policy.

🔍 Topics Covered:

• His journey from aspiring astronaut to leading space policy expert
• China's "attack to deter" doctrine versus America's diplomatic approach
• Daily low-threshold attacks on U.S. space assets and GPS interference
• Solutions for establishing credible space deterrence capabilities

Don't miss this deep dive into America's vulnerabilities in orbit from a veteran strategist who warns we're already "being attacked every day" in space and offers concrete solutions to protect our critical space infrastructure.

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