Sirotin Intelligence Briefing: Apr 12 - Apr 18, 2025: Space Warfare Doctrine Emerges, Golden Dome Advances, And Mars Reveals Subterranean Secrets

The orbital domain faces unprecedented militarization as the Space Force unveils its historic "Space Warfighting Framework," establishing a new lexicon for combat operations while SpaceX, Palantir, and Anduril emerge as frontrunners in developing Trump's "Golden Dome" missile defense shield. This week's Sirotin Intelligence Briefing (April 12-18, 2025) examines these developments alongside NASA's discovery of a potential underground "portal" on Mars that could shelter alien life, even as the agency confronts devastating budget cuts to flagship programs like the nearly-completed Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope. Meanwhile, China achieves a strategic breakthrough with its "hopeless" satellites now forming history's first Earth-moon navigation network, Europe's defense sector rapidly expands into space capabilities, and Malaysia partners with Chinese aerospace firms to lead ASEAN's emerging space economy—all analyzed through expert commentary from Senior Intelligence Contributor Christophe Bosquillon on the evolving commercial-military space dynamic.

🛡️ Defense Highlights

• Space Force Unveils Warfighting Framework: Released its first explicit blueprint for defending satellites and targeting adversary systems, establishing a common lexicon for space combat. Lt. Gen. Bratton emphasized the evolution beyond "protect and defend" language, marking the service's maturation as a warfighting branch focused on lethality and combat effectiveness.
• SpaceX Leads "Golden Dome" Race: Musk's company, partnering with Palantir and Anduril, has emerged as frontrunner to develop key components of Trump's missile defense shield. The consortium proposes hundreds of tracking satellites plus 200 attack satellites with potential missile/laser capabilities. The January 27th executive order initiative could cost hundreds of billions, representing the most significant space-based defense program since Reagan's Strategic Defense Initiative.
• Golden Dome Congressional Report Released: New Congressional Research Service report identifies significant questions surrounding program architecture, strategic implications, and costs. Lawmakers remain divided, with some championing homeland defense benefits while others fear strategic destabilization and cost overruns. Pentagon expected to present options to the President imminently.
• Russia Targets SpaceX Satellites: Enhancing capabilities against Starlink constellation through electronic warfare. The Tobol system disrupts communications in Ukraine, while Nudol anti-satellite missiles have demonstrated spacecraft destruction capability. Russia's "Kalinka" system specifically detects and jams Starlink connections, highlighting the militarization of commercial satellite networks.
• Space Force Ahead on Commercial Acquisition: Last year's acquisition review positioned the service to align with Trump's April 9th directive prioritizing commercial technologies. Col. Kniseley noted the administration's commercial-first approach validates ongoing efforts to leverage private sector innovations, reduce costs, and enhance capabilities.
• L3Harris Expands Space Manufacturing: Inaugurated advanced payload integration facility for missile defense and environmental monitoring hardware. Positions company as significant player in "Golden Dome" sector among competitors for national security contracts. Expansion targets growing demand for sophisticated space-based sensors and communications systems.
• China Prepares Shenzhou-20 Launch: Rolled out Long March 2F rocket with Shenzhou-20 spacecraft to Jiuquan launch pad on April 16th. The undisclosed three-person crew will replace current Shenzhou-19 astronauts aboard Tiangong for a six-month mission. Continues China's commitment to maintaining continuous human presence on its independently operated space station.

🌐 Policy, Geopolitical & Legal Developments

• Roman Telescope Funding Cut: Trump's 2026 budget eliminates $3.5B space telescope despite near-completion and fall 2026 launch readiness. Observatory targets dark energy and exoplanet discovery. Congress previously blocked similar cuts.
• NASA Science Budget Slashed: 2026 proposal cuts science funding 50% ($7.3B to $3.9B). Mars Sample Return terminated; Earth science cut 50%, astrophysics 70%. Scientists warn of U.S. leadership decline.
• Trump Space Policy Report Released: Manhattan Institute analysis highlights Boeing's Commercial Crew struggles versus SpaceX's expanding role. Suggests Mars pivot despite Congressional lunar support. Notes Musk-administration tensions during astronaut return.
• NATO Accelerates Space Policy Review: Alliance considering update before 2027 schedule, with June Hague summit discussions. Space domain evolution prompts reassessment six years after operational recognition. 2025 commercial strategy forthcoming while relying on member assets.
• European Defense Enters Space: Defense sector expanding space capabilities amid threats. ESA notes Europe spends only 15% on military space versus 50% global average despite strong technical capability. National strategies exist but sector fragmentation impedes coordination.
• Space Debris Management Urgency: 40,000 tracked objects and 1.2M fragments over 1cm create collision risks. Scientists propose UN orbital preservation goal. March 2025 conference in Austin addressing environmental and operational challenges.

🛰️ Technology & Commercial Developments

• Mars "Portal" Discovery Intrigues Scientists: NASA identified a 328-foot-wide hole on Mars that could access an underground environment potentially sheltering alien life. The circular-crater-surrounded feature was captured by the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter in 2017. Scientists believe such naturally sheltered tunnels could protect from harsh surface conditions, making them prime exploration targets.
• China's "Hopeless" Satellites Form Earth-Moon Network: Chinese engineers established the world's first cislunar satellite constellation, recovering two stranded satellites to create a communication and navigation network from low Earth orbit to distant retrograde orbit. The system achieved a record 1.17 million km space-to-space link, proving reliable connectivity across vast Earth-moon distances and supporting future lunar missions.
• D-Orbit and Planetek Announce Strategic Combination: Space logistics leader D-Orbit acquired Earth observation specialist Planetek Group while maintaining operational autonomy. The partnership integrates cloud-based applications, AI-powered in-orbit data processing, and real-time services. Their recent AI-eXpress mission leverages artificial intelligence and blockchain for enhanced satellite reactivity and low-latency analytics.
• Malaysia Launches ADISB for Regional Space Leadership: Positioned to lead ASEAN region in space-based technology through ADISB, a joint venture between Altel Communications and China's Zhejiang Geespace. Communications Minister Fahmi Fadzil announced the initiative will leverage LEO satellite technology for digital transformation while collaborating with government agencies on ground reference networks and maritime tracking systems.
• Space Force Accelerates Commercial Integration: Intensifying efforts to integrate commercial alternatives for space domain awareness, communications, and tactical surveillance. The Commercial Augmentation Space Reserve (CASR) program awarded $1.1 million to space situational awareness providers, with additional mission areas planned. Col. Kniseley's office is developing a pilot with Space Safari for on-demand launch capabilities targeting rapid asset deployment.
• Veteran Astronaut Don Pettit Returns from ISS: NASA astronaut Pettit and cosmonauts Ovchinin and Vagner scheduled to land April 19 after 220 days aboard the International Space Station. Their Soyuz MS-26 will undock from the Rassvet module for Kazakhstan landing. Pettit, NASA's oldest active astronaut at 69, celebrates his 70th birthday during reentry after traveling 93.3 million miles since September 2024.

💭 A Word From Christophe Bosquillon

Intelligence Contributor, Senior Editor at Sirotin Intelligence

Defense and security remain a top driver for US and global investment in commercial space. 

Upon release by General Chance Saltzman of the essential USSF Warfighting Framework, commercial providers are likely to provide key capabilities being defined, from integrated cyberspace operations and Space Domain Awareness, to essential technologies that enable rapid movement and manoeuvre, as well as sustainment by provision of logistics and personal services to maintain operations.  

Furthermore, POTUS signed  two Executive Orders "Ensuring Commercial, cost-effective solutions in federal contracts"and "Restoring common sense to federal procurement" with renewed opportunities for private sector providers.

 As noted by US, NYC-based Space Capital in their Space IQ investment report for Q1 2025, the discussion focuses on the significance of the space domain in future warfare. The Trump 2.0. administration's increased investment in this area is expected to bolster national security funding in space technologies, from missile defense to AI turbocharging geointelligence. 

The UK, London-based Seraphim Space "Space Index for Q1 2025" notes further concentration in capabilities for defense and security. Their new Whitepaper “The Role of SpaceTech in Solving Europe’s Security Dilemma” outlines an urgent roadmap to ensure Europe’s long-term security and technological autonomy through space technology.

Indeed, at the 3rd ESA Security Conference, the European Space Agency, pushing for a record €21 billion budget request, officialised supporting activities in space defense and security. Albeit passive and defensive postures such as geointelligence and infrastructure resilience, since the ESA mandate doesn't authorise offensive capabilities. The Polish firm Creotech Instruments signed the biggest ever ESA contract (€52 million) to launch a satellite constellation.

The Singapore office of Deloitte South-East Asia published "Space to Thrive: Southeast Asia's Space Industry on the Rise" where it projects that space-enabled data across the region's industries will drive US$100 billion of GDP contribution by 2030 as a major demand driver.

 In a global space investment landscape where the US and China weight 50% and 25% respectively, South-East Asia is an Astropolitik competition case in point: Malaysia and China just published a broad cooperation framework, calling for "jointly enhancing space capabilities, cultivating the space economy, promoting technological progress, and safeguarding national security". 

Have a great space week ahead!

🎤 Our Next Guests

Tuesday, April 22nd– John Sheldon on Rethinking Space Security Frameworks

John Sheldon, Partner at AzurX and former advisor to the UAE Ministry of Defence, shares his insights from 25 years on the frontlines of space security across multiple continents, from Washington think tanks to Gulf monarchies.

🔍 Topics Covered:

• Why 20th century frameworks can't handle modern space warfare challenges
• How Middle Eastern space programs are bringing fresh perspectives to global space governance
• The evolution of space security thinking from theoretical frameworks to practical applications
• The growing gap in international space governance in addressing emerging threats
• Why traditional arms control approaches face significant challenges in space
• The fundamental rebalancing of relationships between public and private space activities
• Sheldon's experience drafting Saudi Arabia's space policy and developing the UAE's space strategy
• The increasing importance of resilience in space security thinking

Join us for this thought-provoking discussion with a strategic thinker who understands that space security can no longer be addressed in isolation as threats multiply and the lines between commercial and military activities continue to blur.

Friday, April 25th– Paul Liias on Estonia's Digital Space Revolution

Paul Liias, Head of Space at Estonia's Ministry of Economic Affairs and Communication, joins us to discuss how this tiny Baltic nation of just 1.3 million people is leveraging its world-renowned cyber expertise to become a formidable player in the global space sector.

🔍 Topics Covered:

• How Estonia is applying its 20-30 years of digitalization expertise to create a niche in the emerging space cyber security sector
• The advantages of building a space program without legacy systems and historical constraints
• Estonia's innovative approach to space legislation, including provisions for lunar missions and space debris management
• The promising intersection between space technology and the gaming industry
• How Estonia's "minimum viable product" approach to regulations supports industry growth while avoiding unnecessary barriers
• Estonia's vision for the future as it celebrates 10 years of European Space Agency membership
• The challenges and opportunities in the underserved space insurance market

Don't miss this fascinating conversation with the architect of Estonia's Space Policy who's helping transform a small digital powerhouse into a significant force in European space governance.

📚 Essential Intel from Our Archives

Missed a beat? These groundbreaking conversations are must-reads:

"We're Building the Railroads of the Space Gold Rush"

Space Phoenix Systems CEO Andrew Parlock positions his company as "FedEx for space," creating an infrastructure that helps businesses launch and return payloads from orbit with minimal friction.

"Our Nuclear Shield Was Killed For Political, Not Technological Reasons"

Reagan's SDI Director Ambassador Henry Cooper argues that effective missile defense technology developed during the Reagan-Bush years was abandoned for political reasons when the Clinton administration "took the stars out of Star Wars."

"Every Country Has a Border with Space"

UK Space Agency CEO Dr. Paul Bate is developing Britain's space industry through initiatives like spaceports in Scotland's Shetland Islands to establish the UK as Europe's premier satellite launch destination.

"We're Treating Satellites Like They're Still In The 1990s" 

Niha Agarwalla, Director of Commercial Space, explains why traditional satellites are obsolete and how resilient constellations will transform space economics.

"When People See Space Guardians in Uniform, They Ask If They're Real" 

Colonel Bill Woolf, 25-year space defense veteran, reveals his mission to build public support for the newest military branch defending America's orbital assets.

"One Kilogram of Helium-3 Is Worth $50 Million" 

Jeffrey Max, Magna Petra CEO, explains how lunar resource extraction could revolutionize Earth's energy production and fuel humanity's expansion across the solar system.

"I'm Building a Rocket Engine That Could Reach Alpha Centauri" 

Michael Paluszek, Princeton Satellite Systems President, reveals how fusion propulsion could reduce travel times throughout our solar system and enable humanity's first interstellar missions.

"Space Has a Scottish Accent"

Chris Newlands, CEO of Space Aye, discusses how his company's satellite technology is revolutionizing wildlife conservation and helping to combat illegal fishing and poaching.

"I Learned From the Last Generation of Manhattan Project Veterans”

Patrick McClure, former Kilopower Project Lead at Los Alamos National Laboratory, explains how small nuclear reactors could power future missions to the Moon, Mars, and beyond.

"We're Being Attacked Every Day" 

Christopher Stone, Former Pentagon Space Advisor, warns about America's vulnerabilities in orbit and explains why China's "attack to deter" doctrine makes space conflict more likely than many realize.

"I Helped SpaceX Secure Their First Commercial Contracts" 

Serial entrepreneur Robert Feierbach discusses building billion-dollar space ventures across four continents and developing North America's newest spaceport.

"We Can Fly 8,000 Miles In 2 Hours" 

Jess Sponable, Ex-DARPA PM & President of NFA, explains how rocket-powered aircraft will revolutionize global travel through simplified hypersonic technology.​​ 

"This Could Be Our Biggest Economy"

Kevin O'Connell, Former Space Commerce Director, reveals how space is transforming from a government domain to a $1.8 trillion market.

​​"How Do You Win a War in Space?" 

Ram Riojas, Ex-Nuclear Commander and Space Defense Expert, explains why the next war will start in space and how nations are preparing their defenses.

"First Day on the Job, Hubble Was Broken" 

Mike Kaplan, James Webb Space Telescope Pioneer, reveals how early setbacks with Hubble shaped NASA's approach to complex space missions. 

The Future of Human Space Habitation 

Jules Ross reveals how her journey from artist to space visionary is reshaping human adaptation to space through Earth's first artificial gravity station.

Space Law's New Frontier 

Attorney Michael J. Listner unpacks the complex legal challenges facing modern space activities. From resource rights to orbital debris management

Making Oceans Transparent From Space

Navy Legend Guy Thomas, inventor of S-AIS, shares how his invention transformed global maritime surveillance and security.

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